How Sina Weibo increase revenue after using real identities for register
- March 22nd, 2012
Users must register with their real identities will probably delay the company’s revenue-generating plan until the second half of this year.
"That will create a lot of negative sentiment with investors," says Alicia Yap, an analyst at Barclays Capital. "The post-New Year rally will not be sustainable."
Such concerns were reinforced this week, when government officials said that Weibo users who failed to register under their real names by March 16 would no longer be allowed to post messages. Local media have reported that only 3m new users have registered on Sina Weibo over the past month down from about 20m in earlier months.
The company’s share price already reflects some of these concerns. Following a series of government moves towards tighter censorship of social media, and falling profitability because of the soaring cost of marketing Weibo, Sina shares have lost 54 per cent since their peak of $142.83 on April 19 last year.
Sina has not been idle, though. "The company has been working hard to lay the ground for monetization, and it is moving closer," says Dong Xu, a social media expert at Analysys International, an internet research company in Beijing. That includes hiring engineers to strengthen its skills in developing applications and to adjust its platform to new needs.
Unlike Tencent, China’s largest internet company by revenues and Sina’s main rival in the social space, Sina is essentially a media company. Advertising accounted for 77 per cent of its 2011 revenues of $484m, Morgan Stanley estimates.
Investors hope the company can build a business beyond advertising, similar to Facebook, which last week filed for its long-awaited stock market debut to raise $5bn. Such a model would resemble Tencent, whose broad spread of revenue streams has made it much less vulnerable to cyclical swings when advertising falls.
Sina has taken steps to prepare for that, including the launch of a gaming platform and a virtual currency. But that is all at an experimental stage and there is skepticism about some areas of monetization.
"So far, most things are free," says Xu Zhiming, founder of Kuaishubao, an online bookstore that uses Sina Weibo for its order management and customer relations.
Sina has made its gaming platform free of charge for the first year. Even if it were to start charging, analysts’ expectations are very low. This is partly because Sina’s user base, which consists largely of white-collar workers in China’s largest cities, "are not gamers", says Mr Dong of Analysys.
That would leave Sina with advertising. The two main areas of potential here would be the country’s soaring e-commerce market and highly targeted ads similar to those on Facebook. Many Chinese e-commerce sites have already linked up to Weibo, but Sina has yet to demand a revenue share for that.
The biggest disappointment for industry experts has been lack of progress in targeted ads.
"In theory, Sina has an incredible asset with all this user data, but they don’t appear to know how to analyze those data," says a Beijing advertising agent.
Despite healthy advertising demand in general, that weakness in reading the data impedes progress, especially in the current political climate. "Brands worry that they could be tied to re-tweeted messages that might be sensitive," says Barcap’s Ms Yap.
All these things are much less of a problem for Tencent. Although it has a microblog of its own, the Shenzhen-based company sees the service mostly as a tool to wear down Sina and make sure it does not challenge Tencent’s lead in social networking in China.
Says a Tencent executive: "We have no plans to monetise our microblog. We don’t need to."